In the last week, headlines have loudly declared that India faces “$60 billion export losses” because of new U.S. tariffs. The number is dramatic, but also misleading.

Tariffs: Big Number, Smaller Reality

The U.S. has slapped 50% tariffs on about 66% of India’s $86.5 billion annual exports to America, putting roughly $60 billion worth of goods at risk (Guardian).

But calling this a $60B “loss” distorts the picture. That figure is the gross value of exports exposed to tariffs, not the actual hit to India’s economy. In reality:

• Many exporters will still ship to the U.S., though with tighter margins.
• Some products will be redirected to other markets.
• In several cases, exporters and buyers share the tariff burden.

So while trade will be disrupted, the net loss to India is likely far below $60B.

Oil: The Real Cost Few Talk About

India imports about 40% of its crude oil from Russia in 2025 (Reuters). These shipments come with steep discounts, saving India billions.

If India were forced to cut off Russian crude, it would need to turn back to the global market, where oil could spike to $90–100 a barrel. Analysts estimate this shift would add $9–11 billion annually to India’s oil import bill (Times of India).

Unlike tariffs—which can be cushioned—this is a hard, unavoidable cost. It drains foreign exchange, pressures the rupee, and fuels inflation.

The Comparison Side by Side

Why This Matters

Public debate has focused on tariffs because the headline numbers look scary. But the true economic pinch may come from energy, not exports. Tariffs can be negotiated, worked around, or absorbed. Oil shocks cannot.

The Bottom Line

India’s policymakers and public need to see past the noise of “$60B lost to tariffs.” The hidden bill—$9–11B in higher oil costs if Russian imports are disrupted—poses a more direct, painful, and lasting risk to the economy.

The real dilemma isn’t just about U.S. tariffs. It’s about whether India can afford to give up Russian oil discounts without paying a far higher price at home.

Siddharth Sehgal is an entrepreneur with an interest in economics and global affairs. Drawing from his business experience, he writes independently to share simple, clear views on issues that often get lost in headline-driven debates.